NEW YORK – With all the talk about the launch of a new iPhone in September (not October as previously rumored), various experts expect Apple analysts to hurry and adjust their models.
After all, iPhone sales made on or before 29 September (the last day of Apple’s fourth fiscal quarter of 2012) will be counted as income in a quarter which all of Wall Street predicts as another disappointment.
Finally, on Wednesday, analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray addressed the issue. Munster still has not adjusted his model – nor has other Apple analysts – but he did make his calculations.
“We believe a launch in September could bring in 6 to 10 million iPhone 5 units sold in the last 10 days of the month, which would probably affect December. We believe that if the iPhone 5 debuts in September, Apple could sell 26 or 28 million units in the quarter (this takes into account the dramatic slowdown in iPhone sales between 12 and 20 September). This would imply an increase of 8% of about 35 billion dollars in revenue and a 12% increase in earnings per share of 8.46 dollars.”
Wall Street expected Apple to sell 23 million iPhones in the fourth quarter, and not 27.19 million.
To complete the calculation, writes Munster, he would have to reduce the estimates he made of iPhone sales in the December quarter (which corresponds to the first quarter of fiscal 2013) of 49 million. But, as Munster says, it all evens out in the end.
“While predicting the launch of the iPhone is common among investors, we believe that the iPhone 5 debut in the September or December quarter it is irrelevant to the general scenario, a scenario we believe is the following: the new phone will be the most significant update of a consumer electronics product in history.”